Without a doubt, Yesterday was the day that changed the world: on February 24, the war in Ukraine broke out. The war continues brutally, and people continue to fall in a pool of blood. As I said before, I am very pessimistic about the situation, because all the situations have made it very clear that war is bound to happen.
What’s more, the opponent is Putin.
The specific details and current situation can’t say here. I saw many Western leaders say this was the darkest day in Europe after World War II. Maybe, But more precisely, this is the second time, the first being the 1998 air raid on Yugoslavia
The most important thing now is not the war. The outcome of the war is no longer in suspense, but the consequences. The consequences are very serious and will affect the whole world, including us who are far away from the battlefield.
So here is the ten serious consequences of Ukraine-Russia war
1. Global stock market crashed and fluctuated
On February 24, there were two places with the most violent shocks in the world. One was the Ukrainian battlefield, where real guns and guns were fought; the other was the global stock market, where the real money was lost.
Anyway, when the war started, the global stock market plummeted, Japanese stocks were face worse, German stocks and British stocks were unbearable, and the Russian stock market collapsed across the board. The Russian RTS index once fell by more than 50%, that is to say, all stocks were cut in half; half of the wealth in hand was zero.
You can imagine how tragic this is. So many bulls watching the stock market fall, it feels like they are taking my money to fight Ukraine. In the era of globalization, the impact of war is also global, and no one can escape it.
2. International oil and gold prices soared
Heart-pounding ?. Anyway, after 7 and a half years, the international oil price has exceeded 100 US dollars per barrel. Gold is also selling like crazy, many gold stocks in A-shares have daily limit, and international gold prices are also skyrocketing across the board.
This may also be one of Putin’s most confident bargaining chips.
Two reason Putin not scared of Western one is nuclear weapons, he is sure that the West will not dare to send troops, and directly fight with Russia, because Russia’s nuclear weapons are not a joke; the other is oil, war is a lot of Spending money, Western sanctions against Russia will also suffer huge losses, but oil prices are skyrocketing.
The worst offenders are the big oil-consuming countries countries like America. Commodity prices will rise if the war continues. Prices this year are a bit high.
3. Humanitarian catastrophe.
Ukraine, was rich land back during Soviet Union. Back then in the Soviet Union, Ukraine was second only to Russia, but after the disintegration of the Soviet Union 30 years ago, the country was divided, the mountains and rivers were shattered, and the wars continued.
Austrian Prime Minister Nehammer revealed that after the outbreak of the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called him and told him: “I don’t know how long my country will survive.”
Refugees are fleeing from Ukraine all directions. According to some predictions, this war could result 50,000 deaths and 5 million refugees. A huge influx of refugees will flow into Russia, and even more into the EU.
In the short term, this will be a humanitarian crisis, and the EU will bear a heavy burden; in the long run, it may even lead to changes in the demographic landscape. A large number of Ukrainian refugees will provide fertile soil for European populism and xenophobia, and then change Europe politics.
4. Sanction and Sanction
The West will not send troops, nor dare to stop Russia. The only remaining option condemning Russia and sanctions.
Although Russia has been sanctioned more than 100 times before, but now, Russia will encounter the most severe one in history. All Russian assets in the West will be frozen, and Russia will even be expelled from the international financial system.
After the outbreak of the war, Putin met with the business community and said frankly: It is impossible to predict all potential risks, “All of us, including you, must understand the world we live in, and use one way or another for the restrictions and sanctions that are taking place now.
On one side are Western countries, which account for more than half of the world’s GDP, and on the other, Russia, which accounts for only 2%. The disparity in economic power will put Russia under the pressure of Mount Everest.
5. More intense war
Will Russia Stop?
Certainly not. This will be a more intense combination of verticals and horizontals. The West has allies, and Russia has no shortage of small partners. Of course, more importantly, Russia, which is clenching its teeth, has no shortage of countermeasures.
Even if Western civil aviation is restricted from flying over Russian airspace, it will completely disrupt the entire civil aviation market; not to mention, Russia still has natural gas and oil that Europe needs. This will be a war of attrition, and European politics is also complicated. It cannot be ruled out that pro-Russian forces and leaders will emerge. Russia will seize the opportunity to divide the contradictions between Europe and the United States and Europe.
Russia’s strategy of struggle will also be ruthless. It’s been a long cut-throat battle, and what will happen to the world once Russia feels it has nothing to lose?
6. Completely rewriting European geopolitics
Originally, Ukraine had turned to the West and applied to join NATO and the European Union. But now, with the arrival of Russian tanks, the process has come to a screeching halt. Is this the last time Europe has rewritten its borders? I don’t think anyone would naively think so.
Remember that Russia has the largest conventional army in Europe, ready to use. Feared, Eastern European member states, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania, may demand a large number of NATO troops on their territories. Even NATO already deployed huge no of troops near Ukraine boreder.
It is not even ruled out that Finland and Sweden will ask to join NATO in the future. That means that Russian troops and NATO troops will be in closer contact. Is the world safer or more dangerous without a buffer zone?
7. The West had to adjust its strategy again
This may be our most speechless place.
In the Ukraine war, the United States will have to make a new strategic adjustment, send more troops to Europe, and concentrate more resources on sanctions against Russia. Just like after the 9/11 incident, the United States had to make strategic adjustments, because the most important enemy at that time was neither China nor Russia, but terrorism.
At least in the short term, the number one enemy of the West must be Russia. Of course, we should not be too optimistic. Western politicians will change when they say it changes, and it is not ruled out that after a period of time, they will reach some kind of tacit understanding with Russia, sacrifice Ukraine, and then turn around again to deal with the eastern powers.
8. Drastic change of Western mentality
In the past, NATO expanded eastward step by step, and it felt that it was bound to win. Brzezinski threatened in “The Big Chess Game”: “An enlarged and democratic Europe must be an endless historical process, not limited by geography that is arbitrarily smeared politically… For the United States, Russia Too weak to be a partner; but Russia is too strong to be only a pet of America.”
Decades later, it has emerged that the aggrieved Russia has not played cards according to common sense, and simply chose war. In Putin’s words, Russia has no choice but to defend its own security.
The world has seen the wickedness of Western countries. The mentality of Eastern European countries will change even more, some are cautious, some are more afraid of Russia and hate Russia.
This is certainly not historical justice, but this is the harsh reality of jungle politics. Especially in Eastern European countries, the feeling is even stronger.
9. Conflict between Europe and the United States
It seems to be monolithic now, but conflicts will definitely break out eventually.
In fact, there are subtle differences in the attitudes of the United States and Europe towards this Ukraine war. France and Germany really don’t want to fight, Macron is even more non-stop, and diplomatic mediation has gone one after another. The United States and the United Kingdom do not seem to want to fight, but there is still some place to watch the fire from the other side and agitate Ukraine.
But as time goes on, the United States and Britain can continue to maintain high-profile and continue to swing big sticks, but France and Germany must consider their own security and economic interests. Russia is not a fuel-efficient lamp, nor will it forget to send some nutrients to the differences between Europe and the United States in time.
You see, in the end, the United States and Europe will have fierce differences on the Russian issue.
10. India might help
Is there any major country in this world that obeys international rules better than India? Is there a great power that respects the sovereignty of other countries more than India? Is there a major country that values peace more than India?
The answer is two words: no!. India is the only country who never attack any country.
Yesterday Ukraine asks Indian prime mister to talk with Putin to stop war. Even Ukraine ambassdor didnt hesitate to say PM Modi is the onlt leader Putin will listen and only he can stop the war.
This is something that some people should appreciate specially Indians.