After the initial period of having to be on the defensive, recently the Ukrainian Army has launched a counterattack on the Russian border; put the Russian army in a difficult position.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered its third month. On the Northern Front, the Ukrainian Army launched a counter-offensive attack to force Russian army to retreat, forcing the Russian army to retreat to a new location.
The small-scale counter-offensive that began in mid-April gave the Ukrainian Army the advantage, which successively captured several villages. Up to now, the Ukrainian Army is less than 10 km from the Russian-Ukrainian border.
In addition, the Ukrainian Army plans to push the Russian army away, at least 15 km away, so that the 122mm tactical howitzers of the Russian Army cannot threaten the Kharkiv city area.
On April 24, the Ukrainian Army launched its biggest counterattack since the beginning of the conflict, capturing the village of Cossack Lopan and counter-attacking as far as the Russian border.
But this time, the Russian Army and the National Guard worked together to deal a heavy blow to the Ukrainian Army, and a battalion of the Ukrainian Army suffered a terrifying blow. At least 20 T-64 tanks and BMP infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed.
Currently, the Ukrainian Army is still in a defensive position on the whole front, they are only capable of carrying out tactical counterattacks against the weak links of the Russian Army, but are not capable of attacking defensive areas of the Russian Army.
The Russian army still has the advantage in terms of the number of tanks, the number of heavy artillery, and the number of missile launchers. Moreover, the Russian Army also has an advantage in terms of the overall quality of the Army.
During the ongoing conflict, the Russian Army sends officers and professional contract soldiers to participate; while the main force in Ukraine are conscripts and reservists, as well as temporary militias.
When Russian professional servicemen face off against an army of Ukrainian conscripts, there is no doubt that the Russian Army has a great technical and tactical advantage.
However, the question for Russia is how long can Russian tanks withstand combat attrition? It is reported that Russian tank factories are having difficulty producing new tanks.
The reason Russia can’t supply new tanks right now is because the factories can’t buy electronics, thermal imaging, and other components from Europe. Therefore, tens of thousands of spare tanks, which were in the Russian Army’s stockpile, had to be shelved.
Currently, the Russian Army has 2,600 tanks in service. But the number of tanks that the Russian Army can put on the battlefield in Ukraine, is decreasing.
By the summer of this year, it is likely that there will be a turning point on the Ukrainian battlefield, the number of tanks and artillery in the Russian Army will decrease, while the number of artillery and tanks of the Ukrainian Army will increase.
It should be remembered that at the time of the conflict, thousands of tanks that the Ukrainian Army stocked, were actually scrapped and could only be sent to scrap yards. At that time, the Ukrainian Army had no more than 1,000 tanks in combat, and the Russian Army destroyed a large part of the tanks in more than 50 days of bombing.
However, countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are planning to send more than 200 T-72 tanks, which have been upgraded to NATO standards, to Ukraine. The US and NATO countries also support more than 200 155mm heavy guns.
With the gradual increase of US and NATO aid, the number of tanks and heavy artillery of Ukraine will increase. According to analysts, this trade-off will come and make a turning point this summer.
Many experts wonder, why has Russia not been able to control Ukraine? There is an opinion that Russia’s key technology is not equal to the US, or even Israel’s. The US military is fighting in Iraq and Israel is fighting in Palestine and they both rely on precision strike capabilities and effective intelligence systems.
Israel is strong in intelligence, it can find a few fighters’ vehicles, among millions of civilians, and carry out precision strikes; but the Russian Army had to face the entire Ukrainian Army, dressed in uniform and lined up on the field, to conduct regular combat operations.
Although the Russian Army has mastered air superiority, until now, Ukrainian artillery is still very active on the front lines, regularly shelling Russian targets on a daily basis.
The Russian military was also unable to cut off the communication and command systems of the Ukrainian Army, not even being able to find out where the actual headquarters of the Ukrainian Army is. The Ukrainian Army’s communications command system was unhindered.
In contrast, the Russian Army’s own communications systems are often interfered with, even located, leading to great damage.
Even in many cases, Russian pilots have to use paper maps and dot coordinates manually, to avoid interference or suppression. This, more or less affects the effectiveness of air power, not to mention that the Russian Air Force mainly uses unguided bombs