The “special military operation” in Ukraine by the Russian military aims to “demilitarise” Ukraine, calls for the disarmament of the Ukrainian army, the resignation of Zelensky’s administration, and the installation of a pro-Kremlin government.
Most analysts believe that the Kremlin is attempting to emulate the successful model of Czechoslovakia in 1968, using airborne troops to complement ground forces, quickly surrounded Kyiv, forced the Ukrainian government to declare surrender or flee, and then signed a relevant agreement with the new pro-Russian government, agreeing to a series of demands from the Kremlin, including those listed below, even though the Kremlin does not acknowledge it.
But things did not work out as expected, and the Russian army found itself engaged in an extremely unwelcome war of attrition in Ukraine. It revealed the truth, but the West also harshly condemned it. Under the influence of the domestic anti-war movement, the Kremlin must get out of the current predicament as soon as possible. As for decency, it is not the most important issue.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia’s work on destroying Ukrainian military installations is “almost complete,” which is considered a prelude to the withdrawal of troops. After all, since the war began, except for the southern city of Kherson, the Russian army has hardly achieved anything decent. The result of the war was a lot of equipment and personnel lost. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that fewer than 500 people were killed in the battle, which was not recognised by most analysts.
As for whether the work of destroying Ukrainian military facilities is really “almost complete”, I am afraid it is not optimistic: the Russian army launched cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to attack the main command facilities of the Ukrainian army in the first wave of attacks, and claimed to have destroyed Ukraine’s Navy and Air Force. But the fact is that the Ukrainian army’s command system is still operating as usual, the Ukrainian Air Force is also constantly dispatched, fighter jets intercept Russian air strikes, fighter-bombers, attack aircraft, and drones attack Russian ground troops, and the air defence system is constantly shooting down Russian fighter jets.
It can be said that the goals of the war declared by President Putin before the war to achieve the demilitarisation of Ukraine have not been realized. The Ukrainian armed forces are still fighting effectively, and according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, they have The defensive mode has shifted to the offensive mode; the Ukrainian government headed by Zelensky has not only not collapsed, but its approval rating has soared, and President Putin’s military action has even accelerated Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. The Russian side’s work on destroying Ukrainian military facilities is almost complete and, believe it or not, has become the main reason for future troop withdrawals.
The problem is that it is easy to start a war, but how to end a war can truly test the wisdom of the decision-making level. Also on March 5, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that starting from 10:00 Moscow time on the same day, the Russian military operations in Ukraine entered a state of silence and opened humanitarian channels for the evacuation of civilians in Mariupol and Vornovaha. The latter was the only agreement reached by Russia and Ukraine in the last round of talks. However, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense did not agree with the Russian military operation into a state of silence, let alone respond. As a result, on the evening of March 5, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the offensive would resume at 18:00 local time in Ukraine on the grounds that Ukraine had not exerted influence on the nationalists and extended the state of silence.
The Ukrainian military and civilians withstood the first wave of the Russian army’s attack and did not collapse as most people expected. Instead, they fought more and more bravely with international support and attacked the invading Russian army in various ways. The Ukrainian government did not dare to believe all the signals of the truce released by the Kremlin and its preparation for the withdrawal of troops. After all, the Kremlin had sworn before the war that the heavy troops assembled on the Ukrainian border did not threaten anyone, so that the Ukrainian government ignored many The warnings of these countries were once passive after the outbreak of the war.
Additionally, based on a number of indicators, the Russian army in Ukraine has entered an unsustainable logistical state, and a sizable amount of heavy equipment has been abandoned owing to a shortage of fuel and replacement components. Don’t start a new round of offence until the truce is over. It’s difficult to predict how the Kremlin will end this round of hostilities, but the Ukrainian government appears to be attempting both to fend off the Russian army and to retake eastern Ukraine.
Many commentators think the Russia’s military foray into Ukraine was doomed from the start, in terms of the military, political, and economic spheres. Withdrawing troops from Ukraine is rather simple, but how to deal with the major fallout from the war will really put the Kremlin to the test, not only in battle but also politically as well as economically.