The Russia-Ukraine conflict is entering its 59th day. The impact of the conflict is affecting all walks of life, affecting the global oil and food prices.
First, let’s take a look at the Russia-Ukraine conflict. After the Russian army captured Mariupol and besieged the Azov Steel Plant, Russian military operations in the Donbas region became more active.
Russia has also officially launched Operation Donbas and has made no secret of its intention to take control of the entire region. While on the Zaporizhzhia front, the Russian Army used heavy weapons including tanks, artillery, mortars, and missiles, to launch a fierce attack on the Ukrainian army.
The objective of the Russian military is very clear, which is to completely destroy the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine after completing control of the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. The Kyiv authorities missed the best time to negotiate.
If after the withdrawal of the Russian Army from Kyiv, Ukrainian President Zelensky does not change his words and signs a peace treaty with Russia, then in Donbas there may be room for negotiations; At this point, it seems that Russia no longer trusts Kyiv, but more in its victory.
Clearly, Russia still dominates the battlefield in Ukraine, even though the U.S. has provided Ukraine with $800 million in military aid, including artillery. But these weapons are absolutely impossible to change the strength of the Ukrainian Army.
In addition to the United States, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also stated that Canada has provided aid to Ukraine with heavy artillery, when in fact the Canadian-supplied M777 light howitzer. In the context of Russia’s unprecedented deployment of artillery, the types of artillery, supported by the US and Canada, are basically very vulnerable to destruction.
Western sanctions against Russia have not stopped the conflict between Russia and Ukraine but instead contributed to fanning the flames of conflict. In the field of natural gas, it is the UK’s turn to bow to Russia.
Johnson’s government, which initially announced sanctions against Gazprom, has now authorized individuals and companies to make payments to Gazprom in rubles until May 31; The UK is “not friendly” to Russia.
Britain’s move is seen by Russia as a “pragmatic choice”. Now, energy prices, electricity prices, food prices, and even daily necessities are rising in Western Europe and the public backlash is clear. Within the EU, there is a bitter contradiction in Russian energy imports.
Under the sixth sanctions code against Russia, which is being negotiated by the EU, it is unlikely to be difficult to reach an agreement. Vetoes include Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria and Austria; While those that support sanctions against Russia include France and Poland.
For France, the impact of sanctions on France will not be as great as Germany’s, but the purpose of France’s sanctions on Russia is not only to weaken Russia, but also to weaken Germany, a potential rival.
And the danger is that France’s runoff general election is coming up, and one of France’s far-right presidential candidates, Marine Le Pen, staunchly opposes sanctions on Russian energy imports.
As for Germany, in fact, it is impossible to give up cooperation with Russia. Germans know very well that, without the Russian energy supply, Germany would face high social costs. Germany never gets gas at cheaper price from anywhere in the world, than what it’s getting from Russia; And the loss of cooperation with Russia will make it difficult for Germany. As such, Germany’s influence in the EU will decline rapidly and this will benefit the US and France.
On the issue of energy imports, Scholz’s view is that even the Russian gas embargo did not stop President Putin from going to war in Ukraine. If Germany followed the U.S., it would inevitably fall into an economic crisis and lose millions of jobs.
It can be seen that Germany will not accompany the US to completely punish Russia on energy issues; the so-called search for an alternative country to power Germany is nothing more than a “fallacy.”
The European economic crisis, due to sanctions against Russia, began to manifest; On April 23, the next bad news came from Asia when the Indonesian government on April 22 ban the country’s cooking oil exports.
This means that global cooking oil prices are likely to usher in a wave of sharp price increases. Previously, Western European countries have seen the purchase of cooking oil paintings. The Indonesian government banned the export of cooking oil, which is aimed at stabilizing the price of cooking oil in the country and curbing inflation.
Now as the world’s largest palm oil exporter, Indonesia unexpectedly announced a ban on exports, causing serious damage to the world. The impact of Indonesia’s palm oil exports on a global scale will be huge, as the country accounts for more than half of the global market
In fact, western sanctions on Russia do not raise the price of Russian food and cooking oil, as Russia is the world’s leading producer of wheat and sunflower oil. Russia’s GDP will indeed suffer, but the impact on society and people’s livelihoods will not be great.
But for the EU and even the US said it will help, the market will definitely face shortage of daily needs, energy prices, food prices or cooking oil prices will rise dramatically; If sanctions against Russia continue to exacerbate social conflict, sooner or later the EU will not follow the US.
The situation of the EU is the same as Turkish President Erdogan said: “We cannot punish Russian gas, I do not want the Turkish people to be frozen to death in the winter”. As such, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is having a strong impact on the whole world,