Some Predictions on the Russian-Ukrainian War

1. Russia does not intend to destroy Ukraine;

2. Russia has three major combat objectives;

3. The highest goal is to force NATO to sign a series of treaties, stop the eastward expansion, and not allow Ukraine to join NATO;

4. If the highest goal cannot be achieved, pursue the second goal and force Ukraine to sign a treaty to recognize the independence of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk and incorporate it into the Russian Federation;

5. If the second goal cannot be achieved, pursue the lowest goal: teach Ukraine a lesson, attack and weaken the Ukrainian military power, and make it unable to regain the newly independent Donetsk and Luhansk;

6. The Russian army can only achieve minimum goals;

7. The war will not last long

8. The Russian army will withdraw soon, most likely on March 1st, 2022.

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