Not long ago, news came from the West that the Russian army had assembled 500,000 troops, 1,800 tanks, 3,950 tanks, 2,700 artillery pieces, 810 rocket launchers, 400 fighter jets, and 300 helicopters on the front line.
The intelligence agency believes the Russian army will likely plan a real decisive battle around the anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, Zelensky received three bad news in succession at this critical moment.
The first bad news is that the West has promised to aid Ukrainian tanks before and may have to release pigeons. Previously, Western countries announced that they would provide Ukraine with heavy tanks, which once aroused heated discussions at home and abroad, and Ukraine was greatly encouraged by this. However, now it seems that Ukraine is happy for nothing.
First of all, the United States stated that their M1 Abrams main battle tanks would not be delivered until August because they had to be refitted; it was not long before the Netherlands and Denmark also changed their minds and stated that they would not provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks.
The German Defense Minister even stated not long ago that the number of tanks that can be provided to Ukraine is progressing very slowly, with only half a battalion (30 vehicles) in size. Compared with the 321 cars promised by the West at the beginning, it can only be said to be a drop in the bucket.
The second bad news is that the Starlink system, which played a huge role in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, is now restricted. In the past year, it was precise because of the help of Starlink that the Ukrainian army did not completely lose normal battlefield communications due to the large-scale bombing of infrastructure by the Russian army.
At the same time, with the help of Starlink, Ukrainian drones have made great contributions repeatedly, destroying many important targets of the Russian army. It can be said that without Starlink, it is hard to say whether Ukraine can be in a stalemate with Russia to the present level.
But not long ago, Musk suddenly announced that he would limit the military use of Starlink and prevent Ukrainian drones from connecting to the Starlink communication network.
Musk’s actions may not necessarily be aimed at Ukraine, but he has his considerations, such as worrying about being retaliated against by Russia or threatening the Democratic Party. But there is no doubt that Ukraine, which cannot freely use the Starlink system, will face a greater disadvantage in the increasingly anxious battlefield.
The third bad news is that the Ukrainian front-line ammunition consumption is too high, and NATO can no longer supply it. Originally, Ukraine had its military-industrial system. Initially, it was barely self-sufficient in logistics and fought back and forth with Russia.
However, as Russia began to bomb the entire territory of Ukraine, the military factories in Ukraine were naturally not spared. As a result, Ukraine’s hematopoietic ability has dropped sharply, and it can only rely more on NATO assistance. But NATO’s assistance is actually not so reliable.
Russia now has the upper hand in firepower, not only because of its rich family background but also because its military industry has entered a state of wartime, providing ammunition to the front lines non-stop. But is NATO entering a state of war for the sake of one Ukraine? No way, they are just taking the opportunity to clear the inventory, but when the inventory is exhausted, NATO’s regular production cannot keep up.
Therefore, the Secretary-General of NATO recently stated bluntly that the military industries of NATO countries are now facing great pressure, calling on all countries to increase production capacity as soon as possible. But the effect of this appeal is probably very limited.
After all, it is Ukraine that is bleeding, not NATO. And how should Ukraine, which lacks ammunition, deal with Russia, which has fierce firepower?
It can be said that Zelensky has recently received bad news, one after another. It is against this background that the West has also begun to put pressure on Ukraine. After the NATO defense ministers meeting, US Defense Secretary Austin told reporters he hoped to see Ukraine launch a successful spring counterattack.
Although it is already an unspoken secret that Russia and Ukraine are about to start a decisive battle, it still shows a bit of urgency when the United States speaks these words.
Why is it urgent? Because of changes in public opinion in the United States, the Biden administration can no longer afford to ignore it. Today, the proportion of people who believe that the United States is on the wrong path has risen from 58% last year to 65%; the proportion of people who support aid to Ukraine has dropped to less than half; 43% of people do not believe that Biden is capable of dealing with The current situation in Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, Biden needs a victory for Ukraine to stabilize public opinion.
However, Ukraine, which has already been lame before the war officially started, can really give him a victory that can be boasted about as Biden wishes. Let us wait and see what the future of Ukraine will be.